Did you know that Poland’s population is shrinking - quietly yet sharply?

Even as the EU’s population grew overall, Poland recorded one of the sharpest declines- losing 123,000 residents. That’s more than the population of Lahti in Finland or Opole disappearing in a single year.

📉 Poland’s population has now fallen below 36.5 million. That’s the third-largest relative decline in the EU in 2024 - after Latvia and Hungary. The reasons are structural:

• Record-low birth rate (~252,000)

• High mortality (~409,000)

• Fertility at 1.1, one of the lowest in the EU

• Youth moving abroad, older generations staying behind

Meanwhile, countries like France, Germany, and Spain are growing, largely thanks to immigration. Even Estonia, with a smaller absolute decline, faces similar demographic headwinds. Poland’s state statistical agency, GUS, estimates that Poland’s population will continue to decline in the coming decades and could fall to as low as 26.7 million by 2060, which would be 27% lower than today.

📊 The data is clear. The question is: how do we respond?

👀 At Spondeo, we’ve helped dozens of Nordic companies grow in Poland and beyond. But we’ve also learned this: strategy often needs demographic understanding of people flows, labor trends, local labor pools and future development are a must. Connect to know more!